“The Great Deposit Roll-Off”: Where Will China’s RMB 75 Trillion in Maturing Savings Go in 2026?

Q: “The Great Deposit Roll-Off”: Where Will China’s RMB 75 Trillion in Maturing Savings Go in 2026?

Imagine waking up to find 10% of China's GDP—75 trillion yuan—suddenly up for grabs as household time deposits mature next year. Financial institutions are quietly preparing for this tidal wave of liquidity, but here's what no one's telling you: while everyone expects money to flow into stocks and bonds, the real story lies in where Chinese families are secretly parking their cash. Major banks claim most funds will stay within their systems, yet insiders whisper about a silent migration happening right under regulators' noses. Why are savvy depositors suddenly flocking to regional banks offering microscopic interest rates? And what's the hidden financial instrument that's quietly absorbing billions without appearing on anyone's radar?

Title: “The Great Deposit Roll-Off”: Where Will China’s RMB 75 Trillion in Maturing Savings Go in 2026?
By Arvin | January 30, 2026

A seismic shift is unfolding beneath the surface of China’s financial system. In 2026, an unprecedented RMB 75 trillion in household time deposits—roughly 10% of China’s GDP—will mature, with RMB 67 trillion tied to terms of one year or longer. According to CICC (China International Capital Corporation), this represents a 12% year-over-year increase, while Guosheng Securities estimates that RMB 37.9 trillion of medium-to-long-term deposits will roll off—the highest level in five years, with over 60% maturing in Q1 alone.

For global investors focused on China A-share and H-share markets, this “deposit cliff” isn’t just a banking story—it’s a potential catalyst for asset reallocation across equities, fixed income, insurance, and wealth management. The critical question: Who will承接 (“take up”) this tidal wave of liquidity?

Three Re-allocation Pathways: What Institutions Are Watching

Analysts broadly agree that most funds will remain within the broad financial ecosystem, but their destinations are diverging. Three key channels are emerging:

1. Bank Deposits Remain Dominant—but Structure Is Shifting

Despite talk of “deposit migration” (cunkuan banjia), CITIC Securities emphasizes that risk aversion remains high among Chinese households. Employment concerns, income uncertainty, and cautious macro sentiment mean most savers will likely stay within bank balance sheets—but with notable changes:

Shortening duration: Moving from 3–5 year CDs to 1-year or even demand deposits.
Shifting from large to small banks: Seeking slightly higher yields at regional lenders.

This trend has profound implications for banks’ liability costs. Guosheng Securities calculates that if 2021-era 5-year deposits (originally yielding ~3.5%) renew at today’s ~2.05%, banks could save RMB 55 billion in annual interest expenses, compressing their deposit funding cost by 31 basis points—a major relief for net interest margins.

Key beneficiaries include agile mid-sized banks like 【宁波银行 – Bank of Ningbo – 002142.SZ – Regional Banking】 and 【江苏银行 – Bank of Jiangsu – 600919.SH – Regional Banking】, which offer competitive rates while maintaining strong asset quality.

2. Low-Risk Asset Management: The Rise of “Broad Savings”

As deposit rates fall, households are increasingly turning to “broad savings” products—low-volatility, principal-protected alternatives that blur the line between banking and asset management.

Bank wealth management products (WMPs): Already holding RMB 30 trillion as of mid-2025, per CICC. Projected to grow to RMB 36–37.4 trillion in 2026, assuming stable bond markets.
Insurance products—especially dividend-paying policies: Gaining traction due to their “guaranteed + floating” return structure. With banks shifting performance metrics from deposit volume to AUM (assets under management), insurance commissions via bancassurance channels are becoming more attractive.

Look to insurers with strong distribution partnerships:

【中国平安 – Ping An Insurance – 601318.SH / 2318.HK – Insurance & Financial Services】
【中国人寿 – China Life Insurance – 601628.SH / 2628.HK – Life Insurance】

Also watch wealth management arms of major banks, such as 【招商银行 – China Merchants Bank – 600036.SH – Retail Banking】, whose private banking and WMP platforms are central to capturing this flow.

“Fixed Income Plus” (固收+) funds are another key outlet. Huatai Securities notes that households added 84 billion units of these hybrid bond-equity funds in H1 2025. Regulatory tweaks—like waiving redemption fees for holdings over 7 days—have boosted liquidity appeal.

ETFs and mutual funds offering “固收+” exposure include products managed by 【易方达基金 – E Fund Management – not listed directly, but accessible via brokers】, often distributed through 【东方财富 – East Money Info – 300059.SZ – Financial IT & Brokerage】’s fund platform.

3. Equities: A Potential “Spring Rally” Catalyst—But Not a Flood

The most tantalizing question: Will this liquidity spill into stocks?

Guosheng Securities argues yes—for Q1. With the bulk of maturities hitting early in the year, a portion could fuel a “Spring躁动” (Spring Rally) in A-shares. Recent market behavior—micro-cap outperformance, speculative themes beating fundamentals—suggests liquidity-driven momentum is already building.

CICC adds that equity inflows may come indirectly:

Through equity-focused wealth management products
Via insurance companies increasing equity allocations
From retail investors buying stock ETFs or thematic funds

However, caution abounds. Huatai Securities warns that personal investors already hold over 50% of A-share free float, raising volatility risks. Moreover, the ratio of household demand deposits to A-share market cap stands at 1.7x—historically high. In past “deposit migration” cycles, this ratio fell to 1.0–1.5x, implying room for equity inflows—but gradually, not explosively.

Crucially, Dongguan Securities stresses: Earnings matter. After 2025’s AI and semiconductor rally lifted valuations, 2026 will require real profit growth to sustain gains. Regulators are also actively discouraging “frenzied bull” speculation, favoring a “slow bull” built on fundamentals.

Strategic Takeaways for Global Investors

Banks: Favor nimble regional lenders over state giants—they benefit from deposit inflows and can price more competitively.
Wealth & Insurance: Overweight integrated financial platforms with strong retail distribution (e.g., 【Ping An – 2318.HK】, 【CMB – 600036.SH】).
Equities: View Q1 as a potential liquidity-driven tactical opportunity, especially in small/mid-cap tech and consumption. But anchor positions in companies with visible 2026 earnings visibility.
Fixed Income +: Monitor “固收+” fund flows via platforms like 【East Money – 300059.SZ】—a leading indicator of retail risk appetite.

Final Thought

The 2026 deposit roll-off is less about money leaving banks—and more about it seeking better returns within a safer framework. This isn’t 2015-style leverage-fueled speculation. It’s a maturing financial system redirecting savings toward diversified, yield-enhancing instruments.

For overseas investors, the message is clear: Follow the deposit—not just the headline number, but its evolving destination. The winners will be those who understand China’s new “savings architecture”—and position accordingly.

— Arvin
Global Markets Analyst | Focused on China A/H Equities & Macro-Financial Trends

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in Chinese securities involves risks including regulatory, liquidity, and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results.